How Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Putin's planned negotiations on the almost lengthy conflict in Ukraine have been put on hold.

Reports of an upcoming US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after President Trump announced he planned to confer with Russian President Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.

A preliminary get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been cancelled, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
  • Trump says he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after arrangement for Putin talks postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as President Zelensky departs Washington without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest development in Trump's efforts to mediate an end to war in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to celebrate that truce deal, the president turned to his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation resolved," he declared.

However, the circumstances that converged to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been ongoing for almost several years.

Less Leverage

According to Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's move to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

Trump benefited from a history of siding with Israel since his first term, including his decision to move the American embassy to the contested city, to alter US policy on the lawfulness of Israeli settlements in the occupied territories and, more recently, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, actually, is more popular among the Israeli public than their prime minister – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's connections in politics and business to key Arab players in the area, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to secure an deal.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, Trump has significantly reduced leverage. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to enact additional penalties on Russia's oil and gas sales and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also acknowledged that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, halting briefly information exchange with the country and pausing arms shipments to the nation - only to then retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his skill to sit down and hammer out deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to move the hostilities any closer to a resolution.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Trump and Putin's meeting in the summer produced no concrete results.

Putin may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.

During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that the president would sign off on legislative penalties supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was afterwards put on hold.

Last week, as reports spread that the US administration was considering seriously shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the possible summit in Budapest.

The following day, Trump welcomed Ukraine's leader at the executive residence, but left empty-handed after a allegedly strained discussion.

Trump maintained that he was not being played by the Russian president.

"As you are aware, I've been played all my life by the best of them, and I came out successfully," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

However the Ukrainian leader later commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of advanced weaponry became a little further away for Ukraine – for our nation – Russia almost automatically became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

So, in a short period, the president has bounced from considering the idea of sending missiles to the Eastern European country to organizing a Budapest summit with Putin and confidentially urging the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – even territory Russian forces has been failed to capture.

He has ultimately settled on calling for a truce along current battle lines – a proposal Russia has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate vowed that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has subsequently abandoned that pledge, saying that concluding the hostilities is turning out harder than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the constraints of his power – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when both parties desires, or is able to, give up the fight.

Deborah Owens
Deborah Owens

Elara is a passionate game developer and writer, sharing her expertise on innovative gaming experiences and industry trends.